• Senators and their staff are now banned from trading on prediction markets.
• The change came via a unanimous addition to Senate rules on Thursday.
• The resolution also urged the House, executive branch, and judicial branch to do the same.

As of Thursday afternoon, senators and their staff can't trade on prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket.

The Senate passed a resolution amending Senate rules to forbid members and Senate employees from making prediction market trades via a "voice vote" — meaning no senator objected, and a formal roll call vote was not taken.

The resolution was introduced by Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio last week.

"Serving in Congress is an honor, not a side hustle," Moreno wrote on X after the resolution passed. "Americans deserve to know that their leaders are here for the right reason!"

The resolution also urged the House, the executive branch, and the judiciary to enact similar rules.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour applauded the move, noting that his platform already bans members of Congress from trading.

Polymarket also wrote on X that it's in "full support" of the resolution. Americans are currently forbidden from trading on the company's main international exchange, though many are known to use VPNs to do so anyway.

The resolution's passage comes amid broad public concerns about the risk of insider trading on prediction markets.

Lawmakers have introduced a variety of bills to regulate the industry, including some that also would've banned members of Congress from trading on the platforms.

Some lawmakers in both the House and Senate had also contemplated banning their own staff from prediction market trading without a broader change to Senate rules. Several governors have also signed executive orders banning state employees from trading on prediction markets as well.

Last week, the Department of Justice indicted a US Army soldier for using classified information about the raid to capture Venezuelan Leader Nicolás Maduro to make a lucrative trade on Polymarket.

He pleaded not guilty to the charges earlier this week in federal court, and a judge agreed to a $250,000 bail package that included travel restrictions.

• The government filed charges on Monday against Cole Allen, the WHCD shooting suspect.
• He was charged with attempted assassination of the president, which could land him life in prison.
• Prosecutors included an email Allen sent before the alleged shooting explaining his actions.

Federal prosecutors on Monday charged 31-year-old Cole Allen, the suspected White House Correspondents' Dinner shooter, with attempting to assassinate the President of the United States.

That rarely used charge carries a maximum penalty of life imprisonment.

The seven-page criminal complaint also includes two gun charges: transportation of a firearm and ammunition in interstate commerce with intent to commit a felony, and discharge of a firearm during a crime of violence.

The complaint said that at the time of his arrest, Allen possessed a 12-gauge pump action shotgun and a Rock Island Armory 1911 .38 caliber pistol. He purchased the shotgun in 2025 and the pistol in 2023, according to prosecutors.

Jeanine Pirro, the US attorney for the District of Columbia, said at a press conference on Monday that there "will be additional charges as this investigation continues to unfold."

Allen's lawyer, public defender Tezira Abe, didn't return a request for comment. In court on Monday, Abe said Allen has no prior arrests or convictions and "is presumed innocent at this time," NBC reported.

The dinner, an annual toast to the First Amendment attended by journalists, politicians, and the occasional celebrity, was disrupted on Saturday after shots rang out in the lobby of the Washington Hilton, the hotel where the event was held.

The president and senior administration officials are typically at the dinner as well, though this was the first time Trump attended as president. Saturday night's incident was the third known assassination attempt that Trump has faced.

Since the incident, Trump and some of his allies in Congress have said that the shooting makes it all the more important that the new White House ballroom in the East Wing be built, given the higher security.

Tim Röhn, the senior editor of the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, wrote that the security protocols at the event was "surprisingly lax," entailing simply flashing a screenshot of an invitation and passing through a metal detector before entering the ballroom.

Prosecutors say in the criminal complaint that Allen sent an email, likely pre-scheduled, shortly before 8:40 p.m. on Saturday, when he approached the security checkpoint at the Hilton.

That email included a message in a .txt file called "Apology and Explanation," along with his "sincerest apologies for all the trouble I've caused."

He signed off on the email "Cole 'coldForce' 'Friendly Federal Assassin' Allen," according to the complaint.

Here's the full text of the message Allen sent to family:

Hello everybody!

So I may have given a lot of people a surprise today. Let me start off by apologizing to everyone whose trust I abused. I apologize to my parents for saying I had an interview without specifying it was for "Most Wanted."

I apologize to my colleagues and students for saying I had a personal emergency (by the time anyone reads this, I probably most certainly DO need to go to the ER, but can hardly call that not a self-inflicted status.)

I apologize to all of the people I traveled next to, all the workers who handled my luggage, and all the other non-targeted people at the hotel who I put in danger simply by being near.

I apologize to everyone who was abused and/or murdered before this, to all those who suffered before I was able to attempt this, to all who may still suffer after, regardless of my success or failure. I don't expect forgiveness, but if I could have seen any other way to get this close, I would have taken it. Again, my sincere apologies.

On to why I did any of this:

I am a citizen of the United States of America.

What my representatives do reflects on me.

And I am no longer willing to permit a pedophile, rapist, and traitor to coat my hands with his crimes.

(Well, to be completely honest, I was no longer willing a long time ago, but this is the first real opportunity I've had to do something about it.)

While I'm discussing this, I'll also go over my expected rules of engagement (probably in a terrible format, but I'm not military so too bad.)

Administration officials (not including Mr. Patel): they are targets, prioritized from highest-ranking to lowest

Secret Service: they are targets only if necessary, and to be incapacitated nonlethally if possible (aka, I hope they're wearing body armor because center mass with shotguns messes up people who *aren't*

Hotel Security: not targets if at all possible (aka unless they shoot at me)

Capitol Police: same as Hotel Security

National Guard: same as Hotel Security

Hotel Employees: not targets at all

Guests: not targets at all

In order to minimize casualties I will also be using buckshot rather than slugs (less penetration through walls)

I would still go through most everyone here to get to the targets if it were absolutely necessary (on the basis that most people chose to attend a speech by a pedophile, rapist, and traitor, and are thus complicit) but I really hope it doesn't come to that.

• Trump weighed in on prediction markets — and didn't sound too happy about them.
• "The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino," Trump told reporters.
• It came after the DOJ indicted a US soldier for profiting off of the Maduro raid via Polymarket.

President Donald Trump sure doesn't sound like a prediction market enthusiast.

Asked on Thursday if he was concerned about the potential for insider trading on prediction markets, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he was "never much in favor" of betting in financial markets.

"The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino," Trump said. "I don't like it, conceptually, but it is what it is. No, I think that I'm not happy with any of this."

"They have all these different sites, they have 'predictive markets,'" Trump continued. "It's a crazy world. It's a much different world than it was."

Trump's comments came shortly after the Department of Justice indicted a US Army soldier who was involved in the planning of the US capture of Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors say Gannon Ken Van Dyke used classified information to reap more than $400,000 in profit on Polymarket.

That trade caught the public's attention in early January, leading to the introduction of a raft of bills on Capitol Hill to both rein in the industry and protect against potential insider trading.

On Thursday, Trump said he wasn't aware of the indictment, but joked that the case sounded like when Pete Rose, the former manager of the Cincinnati Reds, was caught betting on his own team.

"Now, if he bet against his team, that would be no good. But he bet on his own team," Trump said.

Trump previously told The Washington Post that prediction markets are better than "fake polls," referencing the fact that both Kalshi and Polymarket gave Trump stronger odds of winning the 2024 election than traditional polling.

"They predicted me pretty right… by a landslide," Trump said at the time.

Trump's lament about prediction markets, which seemed to echo some comments that Democrats have made about the industry's impact on society, contrasts with the way his administration has approached the industry.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig, the top federal regulator of prediction markets, has moved to defend prediction market companies in the midst of legal battles with states over sports and elections betting.

"It's something that I think is valuable to society," Selig said of prediction markets in a February podcast appearance.

The president's son, Donald Trump Jr., is also financially involved in the industry, serving as a strategic advisor to Kalshi while investing in Polymarket.

• Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are exploding in popularity.
• Congress has been catching up, and there are now several bills related to prediction markets.
• Here are the ones to keep an eye on.

Prediction markets are on the rise, and ideas have begun flying on Capitol Hill about all the ways to contain them.

That includes everything from preventing insider trading, to keeping lawmakers off platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, to banning betting on things like the Oscars or the Super Bowl halftime show.

None of these bills are close to becoming law. Congress is still catching up when it comes to prediction markets, and the Trump administration has taken a friendly regulatory approach toward the industry.

But they're worth keeping an eye on, especially as more Americans learn about prediction markets and as scrutiny over suspicious trades tied to war increases.

Banning insider trading by government officials

It's a fairly simple idea: ban insider trading by government officials.

That's what Rep. Ritchie Torres aims to do with the "Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act."

The New York Democrat introduced the bill in January after an anonymous Polymarket user made a suspicious and well-timed trade on the political future of Nicolás Maduro in the hours before the Venezuelan leader's capture by US forces.

Torres's bill would ban federal elected officials, political appointees, executive branch staffers, and congressional staff from betting on outcomes when they have nonpublic information related to the transaction, or might be able to obtain it via their official duties.

Torres previously told Business Insider that he sees his bill "not as a ceiling, but as a floor" for prediction market regulation.

Kalshi has expressed support for Torres's bill and emphasized that its rules already forbid insider trading.

Keeping politicians off of prediction market platforms

What if we banned the president, the vice president, and members of Congress from trading on prediction market platforms altogether?

That's what the "End Prediction Market Corruption Act," introduced by Democratic Sens. Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, would do.

"When public officials use non-public information to win a bet, you have the perfect recipe to undermine the public's belief that government officials are working for the public good, not for their own personal profits," Merkely said in a statement at the time.

The bill would also prevent senior executive branch officials from trading on outcomes they're involved in or have influence over through their official duties.

In an appearance on Stripe's "Cheeky Pint" podcast, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said it was "not a bad idea" to ban members of Congress from trading on Kalshi altogether.

Banning bets on government actions — and the Oscars

By far the most restrictive bill is the "Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act" from Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Rep. Greg Casar of Texas, both Democrats.

The bill would ban prediction market trading on non-financial government actions, terrorism, assassination, war, and any event where individuals know or can control the outcome.

That means not just a ban on war betting, but no more betting on the Oscars or the Super Bowl halftime show.

"When people get on their phone and see these prediction markets, they expect that there are rules to make sure the game isn't rigged against them," Casar said. "I think that voters would clearly stand with us, saying we want to make sure that you aren't betting on a rigged poker game."

Enacting comprehensive regulation of prediction markets

Connecticut's other senator, Democrat Richard Blumenthal, introduced a bill that includes a comprehensive set of consumer protection measures for prediction markets.

The "Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act," introduced in March, includes an explicit ban on insider trading, age verification to prevent people under 21 from using the platforms, and restricting the use of AI to target gamblers.

The bill would also reverse the Trump administration's move to assert jurisdiction over prediction markets, opening up the platforms to state laws.

Stopping sports betting on prediction markets

There's an ongoing legal battle between states and prediction markets over sports.

States with their own sports betting revenue streams tend to view sports trades on prediction markets as a form of unregulated sports betting, and some have sued.

The Trump administration has sided with prediction market companies, but it's likely to be settled by the Supreme Court eventually.

Rep. Dina Titus, a Nevada Democrat, introduced a bill that would intervene in that legal fight by banning sports trades and "casino-style games" from prediction markets altogether.

Banning trading on terrorism, assassination, and war

There's just one prediction market bill on Capitol Hill that's been sponsored by a Republican: the "Event Contract Enforcement Act."

Introduced by Republican Rep. Blake Moore of Utah and Democratic Rep. Salud Carbajal of California in March, the bill would simply strengthen existing laws around prediction markets.

Specifically, it would ban trading on terrorism, assassination, war, sports or athletic competitions, and any illegal activities.

Moore said in a statement at the time that he introduced the bill in part to ensure that prediction markets "can continue to serve legitimate business interests while protecting Americans from risk."

• TSA agents have gone unpaid for the last month, causing delays at some airports.
• That's because of the ongoing DHS shutdown, spurred by disagreements over ICE funding.
• Here's where things stand with the ongoing partial government shutdown.

If you've been to the airport in the US lately, you may have encountered long lines at security.

That's because Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents have been working without pay since mid-February.

Some of those agents, fed up with the situation, have begun calling in sick or even quitting, according to the agency.

So, why aren't agents getting paid?

A long but largely ignored partial government shutdown

You may not have realized it, but the US has been in a partial government shutdown since February 14. It's already the third-longest shutdown in American history.

A "shutdown" occurs when lawmakers in Washington fail to pass a bill to fund a portion of the government. The longest-ever shutdown occurred in the fall and lasted 43 days.

But this one's different because every department has been funded for the rest of the fiscal year, except one: the Department of Homeland Security.

That department oversees several agencies, including not just TSA, but also the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Coast Guard, and — most significantly — Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

It all goes back to Minneapolis

Just a couple of months ago, none of this seemed like it would happen. Then, Alex Pretti was shot by border patrol officers in Minneapolis on January 24.

Pretti's death, along with the fatal shooting of Renée Good two weeks earlier, led to outrage among Democrats on Capitol Hill, who demanded reforms to both CBP and ICE before they would agree to fund the agencies any further.

While Republicans have a majority in both chambers, the Senate's 60-vote "filibuster" rule means that Democratic votes are needed to pass major funding legislation, given that there are just 53 GOP senators.

The Pretti shooting happened just before a package of government funding bills, including the bill to fund DHS, was set to come up for a vote.

Lawmakers in both parties ultimately agreed to strip DHS funding from the package and pass the rest, and there was only a brief shutdown at the end of January, largely due to timing.

That kicked off negotiations between Democrats and Republicans over DHS funding, which have largely stalled in recent weeks.

Where things stand right now

Democrats have laid out a series of demands for ICE and CBP, including ending roving patrols and tightening arrest warrant rules, increasing accountability measures for ICE, including independent investigations, and adding body cameras and removing masks from ICE officers.

Republicans have publicly rejected many of those points, and while the two sides have exchanged proposals, negotiations have largely stalled.

In the meantime, Democrats in both the House and the Senate have begun to press for bills that would fund DHS except for ICE and CBP.

In a letter to colleagues sent on Monday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries announced that Democrats would try to force a vote on a bill to do just that in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats have tried to pass similar legislation, but have also been blocked.

Republicans have largely objected to these efforts out of concern that, should those bills pass, Democrats will have little incentive to continue negotiating on ICE and CBP, potentially leaving those agencies without funding in the long term.

• Prediction markets correctly predicted the winner in 19 out of 24 Oscar categories.
• In one category, there was a rare tie, and Kalshi and Polymarket settled it in different ways.
• Here are the five categories where prediction markets missed.

If you made Oscar winner predictions based on who was leading on Kalshi and Polymarket, you would've done pretty well.

The two prediction market platforms correctly identified the winner in 19 out of the 24 categories represented at Sunday night's Academy Awards.

That's not quite as good as Polymarket's record with the Golden Globes in January — traders correctly predicted 26 out of 28 winners that night — but it nonetheless demonstrates the markets' ability to channel the wisdom of the crowds, at least most of the time.

And even the stars themselves are getting in on the action: Kevin O'Leary, the "Shark Tank" star who played a supporting role in "Marty Supreme," said he bet $1,000 on Kalshi that his costar Timothée Chalamet would win the Oscar for best actor.

He ended up being wrong: Michael B. Jordan of "Sinners" won, as both Kalshi and Polymarket predicted. But if Chalamet had won, O'Leary would have made a significant profit.

Prediction markets correctly identified the winner in all of the major categories, including best picture, best director, best actor, best actress, and best screenplay.

But in the following five categories, the winning film was not favored by prediction markets.

Best cinematography: "One Battle After Another" was the overwhelming favorite to win, with odds well over 75% on both Kalshi and Polymarket in the days leading up to the awards show. But the Oscar ultimately went to Autumn Durald Arkapaw from "Sinners."

Best animated short film: "Butterfly" was the favorite to win, with chances in the 50s and 60s in the days before the show. "The Girl Who Cried Pearls" got the Oscar.

Best live action short film: "Two People Exchanging Saliva" was favored to win on both platforms, though not by much. But it ultimately ended up being a tie, with both that film and "The Singers" winning an Oscar.

It was only the seventh tie in the history of the Oscars, and the first in over a decade. Kalshi allowed traders to choose "Tie" as an option, though the market only gave it a 2% chance of happening.

On Polymarket, the rules stipulated that in the event of a tie, the film whose "listed name comes first in alphabetical order" would be treated as the winner, meaning those who bet on "The Singers" received payouts.

Best documentary feature film: At 66% on both prediction markets, "The Perfect Neighbor" was the favorite. "Mr. Nobody Against Putin" ended up winning the Oscar.

Best casting: "One Battle After Another" won, despite the prediction markets putting the odds of a "Sinners" victory in the high 70s.

• One of the tightest Oscar races in recent memories are on Sunday.
• Bettors are already wagering tens of millions on who will win in each of the 24 categories.
• Here's who's most likely to win, according to the odds on Kalshi and Polymarket.

At the Oscars on Sunday, it's not just Hollywood careers that are on the line. It's tens of millions of dollars.

Since the nominees were announced in January, traders on Polymarket and Kalshi have been wagering on which films, actors, directors, and more will win an Oscar in each of the Academy's 24 categories.

Prediction markets have seen dramatic growth over the last year, drawing the attention of media companies, the ire of some state regulators, and the scrutiny of Washington lawmakers.

Polymarket partnered with the Golden Globes earlier this year, and bettors on the site correctly predicted the winner in 26 out of 28 categories.

The Oscars, hosted this year by Conan O'Brien, will air on Sunday on ABC and Hulu.

And if bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket have it right, "One Battle After Another" will take home six Oscars, while "Sinners" will win four awards, and "Frankenstein" will walk away with three.

Where the odds stand for each category

Best Picture — "One Battle After Another"

Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" is the odds-on favorite to win best picture, standing at around 80% among Polymarket and 78% on Kalshi.

The next most likely winner is Ryan Coogler's "Sinners," which each platform gives a less than 20% chance.

Bettors have wagered more than $44 million on the Best Picture winner across the two platforms, the most of any category.

Best Director — Paul Thomas Anderson

The director of "One Battle After Another" is seen as the overwhelming favorite to win best director, with Kalshi and Polymarket pegging his chances of winning in the low 90s.

Best Actor — Michael B. Jordan

Michael B. Jordan, the lead actor on "Sinners," has an almost 60% chance of winning, according to both Kalshi and Polymarket.

That's a significant change from January, when Timothée Chalamet — the lead actor in "Marty Supreme" — was seen as the leading contender, with odds in the mid-70s at the time.

The change came after Jordan won "Outstanding Male Actor in a Leading Role" at the Actor Awards on March 1.

Chalamet's chances now sit in the low-to-high 30s on both platforms.

Best Actress — Jessie Buckley

According to bettors, Buckley — the lead actress in "Hamnet" — is likely to win best actress, garnering about 97% on both prediction market platforms.

Best Cinematography — "One Battle After Another"

"One Battle After Another" is seen as the overwhelming favorite to win best cinematography, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the movie roughly 76% chance of winning.

That's a change from January, when both platforms had "Sinners" with a 66% chance of winning at one point.

Best Production Design — "Frankenstein"

At over 90%, bettors on both prediction market platforms give "Frankenstein" an overwhelming chance of winning the award for best production design.

Best Adapted Screenplay — "One Battle After Another"

In addition to best picture and best cinematography, "One Battle After Another" is seen as overwhelmingly likely to win best adapted screenplay.

The movie now has a 96% chance of winning on both platforms.

Best Sound — "F1"

Apple's sports drama film F1 is the overwhelming favorite to win best sound, according to bettors.

Both platforms give the movie a roughly 80% chance of winning.

Best Animated Short Film — "Butterfly"

Bettors are less certain who will win the award for best animated short film.

"Butterfly," a 15-minute film by director Florence Miailhe, has a 61% chance on both platforms.

But not far behind is "The Girl Who Cried Pearls," a 17-minute short film, which bettors give between a 21% and 22% chance of winning.

Best Live Action Short Film — "Two People Exchanging Saliva"

The French-language short film "Two People Exchanging Saliva" leads among bettors with about a 46% chance of winning on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Another major contender is "The Singers," a musical short comedy film that has 29% chance on Kalshi and a 30% chance on Polymarket.

Additionally, "A Friend of Dorothy," a British short comedy drama film, has a 22% chance on Kalshi and a 21% on Polymarket.

Best Film Editing — "One Battle After Another"

The film leads the odds for best film editing winner, with an 84% chance on both platforms.

Best Original Score — "Sinners"

"Sinners" is the overwhelming favorite to win best original score, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film a 94% chance of winning.

Best Original Song — "Golden"

"Golden," the viral hit from the film "KPop Demon Hunters," is the odds-on favorite to win best original song, with bettors on both platforms giving the song a 85% chance.

Best Supporting Actor — Sean Penn

Sean Penn, who plays Col. Steven J. Lockjaw in "One Battle After Another," is the favorite to win best supporting actor, with an over 70% chance on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

That's a dramatic change from January, when Stellan Skarsgård — who plays an estranged father in the Norwegian drama film "Sentimental Value" — had the highest odds, at roughly 64% chance on both platforms.

Best Supporting Actress — Amy Madigan

Amy Madigan, who portrays Aunt Gladys in the horror film "Weapons," is now the favorite to win best supporting actress on both platforms, hovering around 55%.

That's a change from January, when Teyana Taylor — who portrays Perfidia Beverly Hills in "One Battle After Another" — was the overwhelming favorite to win best supporting actress, sporting 75% on both platforms.

Best Visual Effects — "Avatar: Fire and Ash"

Bettors believe that James Cameron's "Avatar: Fire and Ash," the third installment in the "Avatar" series, is almost certain to win the award for best visual effects.

The movie's chances of winning stand at 94% on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Best Original Screenplay — "Sinners"

"Sinners" is the overwhelming favorite to win best original screenplay, with roughly 95% odds on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Best Documentary Short Film — "All the Empty Rooms"

Bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket give "All the Empty Rooms" a roughly 70% chance of winning the award for best documentary short film.

The movie follows a journalist and photographer as they memorialize the empty bedrooms of school shooting victims.

Best Documentary Feature Film — "The Perfect Neighbor"

"The Perfect Neighbor," a documentary about Florida's "Stand Your Ground" laws, is the odds-on favorite to win best documentary feature film, with bettors on both platforms giving the film a roughly 66% chance.

Best International Feature Film — "Sentimental Value"

"Sentimental Value" is the favorite to win best international feature film, with bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film 67%-68% odds of winning.

Best Costume Design — "Frankenstein"

"Frankenstein" is the overwhelming favorite to win best custom design, sporting roughly 90% on both platforms.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling — "Frankenstein"

Similarly, "Frankenstein" is seen as a lock for best makeup and hairstyling, sporting probabilities in the low 90s on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Best Animated Feature Film — "KPop Demon Hunters"

"KPop Demon Hunters" is the prohibitive favorite to win best animated feature film, with a roughly 94% chance on both prediction markets.

Best Casting — "Sinners"

"Sinners" is seen as most likely to win best casting, with Kalshi and Polymarket bettors giving the film a 77%-78% chance of winning.