• The effects of higher oil prices could cut slash 10,000 jobs a month, Goldman Sachs says.
• The bank said it expects the unemployment rate to rise to 4.6% by the end of the year.
• Higher oil prices can raise inflation and hurt consumer spending, which could worsen the hiring slowdown.

The oil price shock could cost the US economy thousands of jobs a month, according to a new analysis from Goldman Sachs.

In a note to clients on Thursday, a team of economists at the bank said they anticipate higher unemployment and slower job growth through the end of the year as the impact of higher oil prices ripples across the US economy. In the bank's baseline scenario, the oil price shock could shave off around 10,000 new jobs a month through the end of the year, even after accounting for expected job gains in the energy sector.

While higher oil prices have historically led to new jobs in the energy sector, those gains could be more muted this time around, given how the oil extraction business has become more efficient in recent years, Goldman said.

The bank also said it expects the unemployment rate to tick higher to 4.6% by the end of the third quarter. The unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.4% in February, while the economy lost 92,000 jobs, according to the latest nonfarm payrolls report.

"The upward pressure on unemployment primarily reflects lower hiring, with a smaller contribution from higher layoffs, in industries most exposed to weaker consumer spending," the economists wrote.

Markets have been anxious about how much damage the Iran war could cause to the US economy. Higher oil prices could push up the prices of other goods and raise inflation — but the fallout could extend much further, given that consumers are likely to pull back spending in other areas, hurting growth and potentially causing hiring to slow.

Goldman said it expected the hiring slowdown to be the most pronounced in leisure and hospitality. In the bank's baseline scenario, the sector could lose around 5,000 jobs a month through the end of the fourth quarter.

Retail trade, manufacturing, and education and health services were also among the bank's most affected sectors.

The risks stemming from higher crude prices are coming at a time when the labor market has already been steadily cooling, with hiring slowing for most of the past year while job cuts have crept higher. After accounting for downward revisions, the US added 181,000 jobs last year, down from the 1.4 million added the year prior, according to the Labor Department.

• The International Energy Agency released new guidance for people and governments as oil prices soar.
• First on the list of recommendations: Work from home if you can.
• The IEA also suggests minimizing air travel and driving more slowly on the highway.

The International Energy Agency, one of the world's most important energy groups, has issued 10 measures for governments, businesses, and households to take immediately as oil prices soar.

First on the list: Work from home where possible. This will reduce the use of oil used on commutes, the IEA wrote on its website on Friday.

Other measures the IEA suggests include reducing highway speed limits by at least six miles per hour, car sharing, cutting air travel, and using public transport more.

The IEA said that cutting down on business flights "can quickly ease pressure on jet fuel markets."

The agency also suggests switching to electric cooking and shifting bi-fuel and converted vehicles from liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to gasoline where possible.

The price of Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, is around $106 per barrel on Friday, having risen to nearly $120 a barrel on Thursday following an attack by Iran on a major liquefied natural gas complex in Qatar.

The war in the Middle East continues to disrupt global supply chains, sending oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022.

"The war in the Middle East is creating a major energy crisis, including the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. In the absence of a swift resolution, the impacts on energy markets and economies are set to become more and more severe," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

The IEA advises governments and businesses on how to ensure energy systems are stable, sustainable, and affordable. The agency comprises 32 member countries, including the US and the UK.

It warned that the new measures, while potentially effective, cannot completely offset the disruption to the energy markets caused by the war.

"They can play a meaningful role in lowering costs for consumers, reducing markets strains and preserving fuels for essential uses until normal flows resume," it said.

Some countries have already taken measures to reduce energy use, especially those reliant on oil from the Middle East. The Indian government said in early March that non-domestic supplies from imported LPG were being prioritized for essential sectors.

The spike in crude has led to rising fuel costs for Americans. Although the US has not issued any guidance on how to lessen the impact, Business Insider's Sarah E. Needleman and Tim Paradis reported that some companies are allowing employees to work more from home.

• Oil climbed on Sunday as the US and Israel's war with Iran entered its third week.
• The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt the global oil supply chain.
• Higher oil prices mean higher prices for Americans at the pump and in other goods.

Oil futures climbed in early trading on Sunday as the US and Israel's war with Iran entered its third week, disrupting the global supply chain.

Brent oil reached $106.33, up nearly $3 from when the market closed on Friday. West Texas Intermediate hit $101.19 on Sunday.

For Americans, surging oil prices mean spending more at the pump. The national average price for gasoline hit $3.69 on Sunday. Gas prices have surpassed $3 in all 50 US states for the first time since 2023.

The International Energy Agency said last week the war has caused the largest oil market disruption in history, and that global oil supply will drop by 8 million barrels per day in March.

Kevin Hassett, the US director of the National Economic Council and a top aide to President Donald Trump, said Sunday on CBS News' "Face the Nation" that the US is working to minimize the fallout for American consumers.

"The big problem right now would be energy prices, and we're watching and monitoring closely," Hassett said.

Much of the instability in the oil market stems from the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran controls and through which about 20% of the world's petroleum passes. Trump has called on other nations to help secure the strait, but has so far received either lukewarm replies or none at all.

Attacks on major oil hubs are also likely driving up prices. Trump said late Friday that the US had "totally obliterated" military targets on Iran's Kharg Island, where refineries process almost all of the nation's oil exports.

The president threatened to target oil infrastructure on the island if Iran continued to prevent ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. An attack on the key Iranian oil center would further destabilize the global oil market.

In response, Iran said that ports, docks, and "American hideouts" in the United Arab Emirates could be targeted. Fire later broke out near the Port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, the only multipurpose maritime facility on the UAE's east coast and a major oil depot, on Saturday. The local government said an intercepted drone caused the fire.

Any end to the conflict, meanwhile, appears to be a long way off. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Sunday that there has been no discussion of a ceasefire.

"We are only defending our people from this act of aggression," Araghchi said on "Face the Nation."We don't see any reason why we should talk with Americans, because we were talking with them when they decided to attack us, and that was for the second time."