• Citrini Research's "Analyst 3" is the toast of Wall Street over a wild report from the Strait of Hormuz.
• Market watchers praised the analyst's bravery after Citrini said it had sent him to the strait.
• They shared memes and compared him to everyone from James Bond and Ethan Hunt to Johnny English.

Finance types can't stop talking about Citrini Research's "Analyst #3" and what the firm says was a wild trip to the Strait of Hormuz.

Wall Street's denizens and market watchers across the globe rushed to X to commend the intrepid analyst with memes, GIFs, and kudos-filled posts.

Citrini's field report said that its analyst, who it says is fluent in four languages, traveled to the shipping channel at the heart of the US-Iran conflict with "a Pelican case full of equipment, a pack of Cuban cigars, $15,000 in cash and a roll of Zyn."

Analyst #3 wrote that he snuck recording equipment into Oman, faced questioning from border officials, intelligence agents, and the coast guard, and swam in the Strait of Hormuz with a cigar in his mouth and Iranian drones flying overhead.

Citrini included a disclaimer in its research note, saying that some names and details had been changed to "protect the safety of anonymous sources" and that quotes were based on the analyst's memory of conversations he had in Arabic.

The firm described this as "the best we could do from an accuracy standpoint," noting that the analyst's phone, which contained notes and photos from the trip, was held by authorities in Oman.

The analyst reported that there were significantly more vessels passing through the strait than tracking platforms show, and said the situation was closer to a "toll road" than a "blockade," with Iran demanding that every vessel secure its approval to pass through safely.

Citrini Research rose to prominence for betting against Silicon Valley Bank before the lender collapsed in early 2023 and helped trigger a regional-banking crisis. It also rattled markets this February when it warned AI could crash the stock market and spark a recession.

Roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows travel through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a key shipping channel for world energy markets and a major contributor to economic growth.

But traffic has plummeted since the breakout of the war between Iran and the US and Israel, as captains fear being struck by an Iranian drone, blasted by an underwater mine, or hit by a missile launched from the coast or a passing speedboat.

The disruptions have lit a fire under energy prices, stoking renewed fears of inflation and recession. Analyst #3's audacious decision to visit the contested waterway in the middle of a full-blown war has clearly impressed finance professionals, who've compared him to James Bond, Mission: Impossible's Ethan Hunt, and even the bumbling Johnny English.

Michael Burry, the investor of "The Big Short" fame, hailed Citrini's on-the-ground coverage on his Substack, describing it as "remarkable stuff."

• If you made an overseas purchase in 2025, the government may owe you money.
• The Customs and Border Protection could start rolling out IEEPA tariff refunds as soon as April.
• Some shipping companies are willing to help you obtain IEEPA tariff refunds.

If you made an overseas purchase last year that required shipping, the federal government may owe you money.

After Trump ended the de minimis exemption last year, purchasing an item straight from an international vendor, regardless of the item's value, meant incurring International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs.

Now, thanks to a ruling by the Supreme Court that overturned Trump's IEEPA tariffs, and a ruling by the Court of International Trade ruled that all tariffs paid under IEEPA must be returned, buyers may be able to collect a refund.

The Customs and Border Protection said in a declaration on March 6 that it could start rolling out refunds as soon as April, after some technological updates to its system. The CIT estimates that the CBP owes $165 billion in duties that must be refunded with interest, with about $650 million accruing each month.

Even though Trump introduced a new 10% "global tariff" under Section 122, meaning that overseas purchases will continue to face an extra charge, some shipping companies told Business Insider they are willing to help consumers claw back what they paid under the IEEPA.

From FedEx to USPS, here is what different companies are saying about refunding tariffs paid by individual consumers.

Some companies are willing to help

FedEx was the first company to file a lawsuit with the CIT to secure "a full refund" after the Supreme Court decision.

A spokesperson for FedEx told Business Insider that the lawsuit was "on behalf of our customers" and that the company is committed to returning tariff costs.

"Our intent is straightforward: if refunds are issued to FedEx, we will issue refunds to the shippers and consumers who originally bore those charges," the spokesperson said.

"When that will happen, and the exact process for requesting and issuing refunds will depend in part on future guidance from the government and the court," the spokesperson added.

Similar to FedEx, UPS told Business Insider that the company will support customers in obtaining IEEPA tariff refunds after a process is established by relevant agencies.

"We remain focused on keeping shipments moving and helping ensure our customers can fully exercise their rights throughout this complex process," said a UPS spokesperson.

Morgan & Morgan also filed a proposed class action lawsuit in March against FedEx to recover the costs of import duties and fees associated with IEEPA in a legally binding manner.

"While FedEx has stated publicly that they plan to return those funds to their customers, the company did not make any legally binding statements to that effect in their complaint," said Morgan & Morgan in a statement to Business Insider, "Nor have they mentioned any plan to refund the significant ancillary fees they charged for processing those tariffs."

Other major companies

USPS is one of the most popular and affordable methods of shipping small goods, but it can be complicated as a government-owned entity.

USPS has been collecting tariffs for items via its prepaid "Delivered Duty Paid" service, mostly to avoid surprise fees and a buildup of abandoned small items at the border. Unlike FedEx or UPS, it is an independent agency that belongs to the executive branch of the federal government.

Though USPS pays for its own operations and is not funded by taxpayers, it is legally complicated for federal agencies to sue each other in court because they are part of the same legal entity, so it is unknown if USPS could obtain refunds for shippers or receivers through legal means. According to the Department of Justice website, a government agency can sue another only if it can prove a concrete adversity of interest.

A USPS spokesperson told Business Insider that the CBP is responsible for questions regarding the "disposition of tariff monies."

The CBP and shipping company DHL did not respond to requests for comment.