• Cheap drones, missiles, and mines make chokepoints like Hormuz harder for the US to secure quickly.
• The US Navy could need weeks or months to fully secure shipping lanes.
• Even limited transit disruptions can spike oil prices and rattle global markets.

The "load-bearing assumption" among some investors that US Navy warships can easily keep vital chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz open in times of conflict is slowly crumbling, steadily driving oil prices higher, a leading energy consultant said this week.

Robert McNally, a former Bush administration energy advisor and president of Rapidan Energy Group, told Business Insider on Wednesday that the market situation could worsen as US efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of the world's oil flows, drag on and as the potential scale of the looming energy crisis hits investors.

There is a "belief that something like this either can't happen, which was the belief before, or can't go on for long," McNally said, but as time goes on, "the remaining reservoir of just disbelief" that an essential energy chokepoint could be restricted for this long "is going to drain away," pushing prices higher in "the world's, by far, largest energy disruption in history."

To militarily secure the oil route for tanker movement, US forces will first need to substantially degrade Iran's missile, drone, and mine threats, the oil consultant and a military analyst said. That campaign could take weeks or months — long enough to significantly drive up oil prices and rattle global markets.

Surging prices and bleak predictions

The US has already been at war with Iran for weeks now. Over a dozen foreign oil tankers have been struck amid the fighting, and Brent crude prices have been climbing, jumping recently to over $100 per barrel, up from about $70 just before the conflict began, briefly surging toward $120 in the latest spike before edging back down. Year to date, oil prices have risen 78%, largely driven by disruptions created by the Iran war.

McNally predicted bleaker market outcomes if the war continues or if the conflict's combatants — the US, Israel, and Iran — target the so-called "crown jewels" of the global energy system, escalating the crisis rather than reining it in.

Israeli strikes on the South Pars Gas Field in Iran on Wednesday and Tehran's retaliatory strike on Qatar's LNG gas facility have set the stage for that kind of tit-for-tat escalation, even as President Donald Trump attempts to manage the increasingly volatile situation via his social media accounts.

Despite growing market concerns, the US Navy hasn't stepped in to escort oil tankers the way it has in past periods of conflict and tension in the Middle East. Trump administration officials have said that escorts might be an option when it's "militarily possible."

"It takes a while to secure a strait. Iran has a lot of asymmetric layered capabilities," McNally said, pointing to "potent" weaponry ranging from coastal defense missiles to mines to mini-submarines. An escorting warship accompanies a tanker to protect it from threats like missiles, small boats, and even attack drones that Iran can use with little notice in the strait or on the approaches to it.

Escort missions come only "after you pummel Iran for weeks," he said.

US Central Command, which oversees American operations in the Middle East, said on Tuesday that US forces had dropped 5,000-pound bunker busters against hardened anti-ship cruise missile targets along the Iranian shoreline. And on Thursday, the command released video footage of strikes on Iranian naval targets that "threaten international shipping in and near the Strait of Hormuz."

US armed forces have so far sunk over 120 Iranian naval vessels while also targeting naval drone facilities, storage centers for sea mines, and torpedo production sites. Additionally, A-10 attack aircraft are in the fight, gunning for Iranian fast boats.

The US military is "zeroed in on dismantling Iran's decades-old threat to the free flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz," CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said on Monday.

"And we're not done," he said.

A process, not a quick fix

Assumptions that the US can quickly and easily secure vital sea lanes have been shaped by past conflicts where American naval power restored order relatively quickly.

During the Tanker War in the 1980s, US-led escorts helped keep oil flowing despite attacks in the Gulf between Iran and Iraq, and in later conflicts, the US military demonstrated the ability to rapidly overwhelm adversaries.

Those experiences, McNally said, have reinforced a broader expectation in certain markets and policy circles that any disruption to key chokepoints would be short-lived and manageable. That assumption is now colliding with very different threats.

"The weapons proliferation has just dramatically expanded," Bryan Clark, a retired US Navy officer and a defense analyst at the Hudson Institute, told Business Insider on Wednesday.

"You can sort of hang on forever by just using Shahed drones and little drone attack boats," he said, adding that "drones are going to be the biggest threat."

In heavily constricted waterways, like the Strait of Hormuz, which is just 21 nautical miles across at its narrowest point, state and non-state actors can "basically create an ambush situation where you can target shipping," he said.

An Iranian anti-ship cruise missile could hit a tanker in the strait within seconds, giving warship crews very little time to react. And that is only one potential threat.

The Houthis, an Iran-backed militant group in Yemen, seized on that exact opportunity in recent years, targeting both military and commercial vessels around the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

To forcefully curb the Houthi threat, the US launched Operation Rough Rider in March 2025. That effort took 52 days and more than $1 billion to get the rebels to stand down — and shipping still hasn't fully recovered, as many commercial shipping companies have opted for higher prices and longer transit times rather than face the elevated security risks.

The current situation carries greater complexities. Iran has a much deeper arsenal than its proxies, and it has leverage as long as it is willing and able to fight. There are no alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers loaded with crude oil or LNG.

Launching a naval escort mission in the Strait of Hormuz "would pretty much take up all of our deployed forces in that region," Clark said. Without allied support, which isn't coming together, "it's going to take at least a dozen destroyers to do the escort mission."

"They would be all tied up doing that," he said.

Israel, waging war against Iran alongside the US military, has a small surface fleet. US European allies have balked at entering the conflict, though some have deployed ships to defend their assets in the region. Some allies have shown support in condemnations of Iran, but for a potential escort mission, the US could be forced to go it alone, relying on a mix of combat air patrols and naval power.

Clark warned that the mission could go on for months because the Iranians "can hold out for a long time, given the number of weapons they've squirreled away." The Pentagon has acknowledged the challenge of weaponry buried over decades.

As cheap weapons like Shahed drones lower the barrier to entry for precision strike for countries like Iran and aggressive non-state actors like the Houthis, McNally said that it looks like oil disruption is increasingly becoming a tool of coercion in modern conflict. These vessels are being targeted, not merely caught in the crossfire, and that will demand shifts in strategic-level thinking.

Even without a full shutdown of important chokepoints, any disruption alone can shake global markets. In energy markets, delays and uncertainty can trigger price spikes. That's leverage for malign actors, even those limited in conventional military might.

McNally said that "folks will be watching very closely how successful we will be in the coming weeks in suppressing that."

• Russia has clawed back about 10% of its 2026 oil trade deficit this month, Zelenskyy said.
• Two weeks of war in the Middle East earned Moscow about $10 billion, he said, citing Ukrainian intel.
• The Trump administration is also easing sanctions on Russian oil for about 4 weeks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday that Russia had earned $10 billion in two weeks of the US-Israeli war with Iran.

That's about 10% of what Moscow has lost in the oil trade so far this year, he said in a post on X.

Zelenskyy wrote that Ukrainian intelligence reports indicated that global oil sanctions and Kyiv's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure had pushed Moscow's deficit for 2026 to over $100 billion.

"Now we see they have made around 10 billion over two weeks of the war in the Middle East," Zelenskyy wrote. "This is really dangerous. It gives Putin more confidence that he can continue the war."

"The situation around Iran brings him more money," Zelenskyy added of Russia's president, Vladimir Putin.

His remarks come as oil prices skyrocketed in the weeks after the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28. Both have heavily bombed Iran's oil infrastructure, which produces crude primarily for Asian markets, while Tehran's retaliatory strikes have also damaged energy facilities in the Middle East.

More critically, Tehran is effectively stalling traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for about a fifth of the world's oil, with a string of attacks on commercial ships plying the waterway.

Russia, meanwhile, stands to gain from rising oil prices as one of the world's largest exporters, though its dominance has been partially stymied by Western sanctions to punish and inhibit its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Trump administration also announced on Friday that it was temporarily easing those sanctions to relieve the global oil supply, allowing trade of Russian crude for roughly four weeks.

In his post, Zelenskyy also warned that easing sanctions would be "helpful" to Putin.

Oil and gas are crucial pillars of the Russian economy, even as it faces global sanctions, and much of the government's revenue comes from taxing these industries.

In January and February, for example, Moscow said it earned about $$10.2 billion in both months from oil and gas revenue, down 47% year-on-year when accounting for currency swings. Its total revenues for the same period were about $58.7 billion, its finance ministry said.

• The US Air Force deployed F-15E Strike Eagles during Operation Epic Fury against Iran.
• The fighter jets are designed for air-to-air and air-to-ground combat in all weather, day or night.
• Kuwait mistakenly shot down three F-15E Strike Eagles in a "friendly fire" incident, CENTCOM said.

F-15E Strike Eagles, fighter jets designed for air-to-air and air-to-ground combat, are usually a dominating force in the skies.

When three F-15E Strike Eagles were mistakenly shot down by Kuwait during Operation Epic Fury, it brought renewed attention to one of the Air Force's fastest, most versatile aircraft.

Here's a closer look at the F-15E Strike Eagle, an advanced aircraft the US is using to destroy Iran's missile arsenal and drone bases from the skies above Iran.

The F-15E Strike Eagle has been in service in the US Air Force for nearly 40 years.

The first F-15A model flew in 1972, and the first F-15Es were produced in 1988, according to the US Air Force.

It's the fastest crewed aircraft in the US Air Force.

The air-to-air and air-to-ground attack aircraft can fly at 1,875 miles per hour, or 2.5 times the speed of sound.

The F-15E Strike Eagle's high thrust-to-weight ratio enables it to accelerate during vertical climb.

The high thrust-to-weight ratio also allows the F-15E Strike Eagle to execute tight turns without sacrificing speed. It has two Pratt & Whitney F100 engines, each producing over 23,000 pounds of thrust.

Another distinguishing capability is the plane's head-up display, which projects flight and tactical information directly on the windscreen.

Pilots can track and attack targets, check the status of weapons, and see other tactical and flight information without taking their eyes off the windscreen.

The fighter jet also includes a low-altitude navigation and targeting infrared for night (LANTIRN) system.

The LANTIRN system allows the planes to fly in any weather and attack ground targets at low altitudes. The system consists of two pods, a navigation pod and a targeting pod, mounted under the plane.

F-15E Strike Eagles can carry both nuclear and conventional weapons.

Its armament includes an internally mounted 20-millimeter gun with 500 rounds of ammunition, AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles, and AIM-120 AMRAAMs, an acronym for the radar-guided Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles.

The F-15 also regularly carries ground attack weapons like the Joint Direct Attack Munition, or JDAM, a kit that adapts an unguided munition into a "smart" bomb with fins and GPS guidance.

F-15E Strike Eagles are flown by a pilot and a weapons systems officer.

The weapon system officer sits directly behind the pilot, and closely manages the plane's sensors and weapons.

Two variants of the F-15 are single-seaters: the F-15A and F-15C.

The planes can fly 2,400 miles without refueling, and can be refueled in flight.

F-15E Strike Eagles have a fuel capacity of 35,550 pounds.

The fighter jets can be refueled in flight by KC-135 Stratotanker aircraft, which Boeing developed from its "Dash 80" prototype in the 1950s.

KC-135s were also deployed to Israel as part of Operation Epic Fury. One crashed in western Iraq on Thursday, killing six US service members. United States Central Command said the circumstances of the crash were under investigation, but it "was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire."

Each F-15E cost $31.1 million to produce in 1998, according to US Air Force figures. That would be around $62.3 million when adjusted for inflation.

Newer F-15 models cost around $100 million, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The newest version of the aircraft is the F-15EX Eagle II, which features more advanced controls and upgraded engines.

On March 1, Kuwait's air defenses mistakenly shot down three American F-15Es during Operation Epic Fury in what US Central Command described as a "friendly fire incident."

All six crew members ejected safely. The incident is under investigation.

"Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation," CENTCOM said.

• The US military has stepped up its efforts to target Iran's mines, drone boats, and torpedoes.
• This comes after US officials said American strikes destroyed dozens of Iranian ships.
• These tactical efforts reflect an effort to curb Iran's ability to attack the Strait of Hormuz.

The US military is broadly targeting Iran's naval combat capabilities, expanding strikes beyond just warships to mines, drone boats, and torpedoes, the admiral overseeing the Middle East operations said on Monday.

Adm. Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, reiterated in a video statement that eliminating Iran's "naval threats" is one of three military objectives of the American strike campaign, which just surpassed the two-week mark.

Cooper shared imagery showing the aftermath of recent US airstrikes on military sites, among which were a naval drone storage facility and buildings used to produce light- and heavy-weight torpedoes.

The US also hit more than 90 military targets on Kharg Island off the coast of Iran over the weekend, destroying storage bunkers for naval mines, among other targets, Cooper said.

Kharg Island is located roughly 300 miles from the strategic Strait of Hormuz and is the centerpiece of Iran's vast oil sector, handling 90% of its crude exports.

President Donald Trump said last week that the US military operation spared Iranian oil infrastructure at Kharg Island, although he threatened to reconsider if Iran decides to interfere with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a small body of water between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that serves as one of the world's most important naval choke points.

"We're also zeroed in on dismantling Iran's decades-old threat to the free flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz," Cooper said Monday. "Through a combination of air, land, and maritime capabilities, we have successfully destroyed over 100 Iranian naval vessels, and we aren't done."

The US military said last week that it had damaged or destroyed more than 60 Iranian ships and 30 minelayers since the start of Operation Epic Fury on February 28. Satellite imagery obtained by Business Insider shows several destroyed vessels in Iran's ports in the early days of the war.

US forces have used MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to sink multiple Iranian ships, including a submarine, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Friday.

The expansion of airstrikes beyond warships reflects the Trump administration's efforts to restrict Iran's ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz and other waterways, where the Iranians are more likely to fight with covert, asymmetrical capabilities than traditional surface combatants.

American and Israeli strikes have killed hundreds of people and wounded thousands more in Iran, while Tehran's missile and drone attacks have killed dozens in Israel and the Gulf states, according to local health ministries, officials, and media reports.

Meanwhile, at least 13 US service members have been killed, with at least 140 wounded, since the start of combat operations against Iran. The most recent losses were the six crew members who died after their KC-135 refueling aircraft crashed in Iraq on Thursday.

• War in the Middle East has pushed fuel costs, and therefore airfares, sharply higher.
• Business Insider charted the increase in ticket prices for three major flight paths in recent weeks.
• Fares from New York to LA, New York to London, and from the US mainland to the Caribbean have jumped.

Your next flight could be twice as expensive because the Iran war is causing volatility in oil prices.

Brent crude is up more than 50% over the past month, to around $101 a barrel. Jet fuel costs are rising faster. The Argus US Jet Fuel Index is up 72% over the same period.

That spells difficulty for airlines because jet fuel is typically their biggest expense after labor. While many airlines around the world hedge against fuel costs, most American ones do not.

Using data from Deutsche Bank, Business Insider charted rising airfares in three major markets.

The data looks at the lowest available published fares 21 days in advance of the flights. The published fare doesn't necessarily mean a ticket has been purchased for that amount, the Deutsche Bank research analysts said.

Cross-country flights, often known in the industry as transcontinental flights, have seen the biggest week-over-week spike — more than double, on average.

New York to Los Angeles is the country's busiest domestic route, with a capacity of 3.4 million seats out of JFK Airport last year, according to OAG data.

The average price of a transcontinental flight has risen from $167 to $414, Deutsche Bank's analysis showed. In the past week, the average has spiked 107%.

United Airlines is offering flights from Washington Dulles Airport to San Francisco for $502, up from $149 a month ago.

International business travellers are also seeing flight prices rise.

New York to London is the country's most popular international route, and the 10th-busiest in the world. Nearly 4 million seats were scheduled on flights between JFK and Heathrow last year, per OAG.

While the average Transatlantic flight is some 40% more expensive than a month ago, there are bigger rises for the New York-London route. However, it also appears more volatile here with a big dip last week.

Delta Air Lines' service is up from $285 to $553 over the past month, while United's is up to $846. That's a 177% rise compared to a week earlier, according to Deutsche Bank's analysis.

There's bad news for vacationers, too.

Flights to the Caribbean on March 27 are up 58% on average compared to a week before.

JetBlue's flight from New York to Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, has risen from $165 to $566 on March 27.

Compared to a year earlier, that's a more than fourfold rise, Deutsche Bank found.

Southwest Airlines' flight from Baltimore to Montego Bay, Jamaica, has more than doubled over the past week. And Alaska Airlines' service from Los Angeles to San Jose, Costa Rica, is up 40% compared to a week earlier or 120% versus a year ago.

• A US Navy destroyer used an SM-3 interceptor to down an Iranian ballistic missile on Friday.
• It's the third time in two weeks that a Navy destroyer used the SM-3 to defend NATO airspace.
• SM-3s are among are top missile interceptors, but they come with a hefty price tag.

US Navy destroyers operating in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea have been launching SM-3s — among America's most high-end interceptors — to defend NATO airspace against incoming Iranian ballistic missiles.

On Friday, the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Oscar Austin fired at least one SM-3, or Standard Missile-3, interceptor to bring down an Iranian ballistic missile in Turkish airspace, a defense official told Business Insider.

It marked the third time since February 28, when the US and Israel started striking Iran, that a Navy destroyer has used an SM-3 to down an Iranian missile in Turkish airspace, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military developments.

Turkey's national defense ministry said earlier that NATO air and missile defense assets deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean intercepted the Iranian missile. There were no casualties or injuries, although debris fell in the southern city of Gaziantep.

Turkey hosts several important bases for American and NATO forces, including Incirlik and Konya air bases, and an Iranian strike against those facilities could trigger a significant escalation in a war that has already spread across the Middle East.

The Oscar Austin is one of three American destroyers currently positioned in the Eastern Mediterranean. The use of SM-3 interceptors comes amid broader air defense operations across the Middle East. The US and its allies in the region have shot down thousands of Iranian missiles and drones since the start of Operation Epic Fury less than two weeks ago.

The SM-3 uses a kinetic kill vehicle to destroy short- to intermediate-range missiles during the midcourse phase of flight. It can engage targets in space, unlike the Navy's other interceptors, and is outfitted on Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and Ticonderoga-class cruisers.

There are multiple variants of the SM-3, manufactured by US defense giant RTX and, for the latest variant, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

US destroyers first used their SM-3s in combat in April 2024 to defend Israel from an Iranian missile attack, and the US Navy fired them again several months later in October after another barrage from Tehran.

These interceptor missiles don't come cheap, though. The SM-3 Block IB variant, for instance, is estimated to cost roughly $10 million on the low end, while the newer Block IIA costs around $28 million.

It's unclear how many SM-3s the Navy has expended during combat in the Middle East. Air defense doctrine can call for firing at least two interceptors for each incoming missile, so the bill for the latest engagements above Turkey could already be substantial.

Navy leadership has warned in recent years that the US has been firing its SM-3s at an alarming rate. Service officials have warned that they need a lot more of these interceptors to counter threats in the Pacific, such as China and its theater ballistic missiles.